Bitcoin Forecast: Will the Bull Run be Delayed until 2025?
Bitcoin has recently achieved record-breaking highs, sparking optimism for an extended bull market. However, as the current cycle appears to be slowing down, the question arises: when will the leading cryptocurrency reach its peak?
In mid-March 2024, Bitcoin surged to new heights, surpassing the typical post-Halving cycle by 260 days. However, after a two-month period of consolidation, this accelerated pace reduced to 210 days.
According to insights from Rekt Capital, a renowned cryptocurrency expert, if this deceleration trend persists, it could gradually realign the current cycle with the traditional pattern where Bitcoin hits its peak between 518 to 546 days after the Halving event.
Rather than focusing solely on the Halving, it may be valuable to use past historical highs as benchmarks to anticipate a potential bull market peak. Analysis of previous cycles indicates that Bitcoin generally reaches a peak within 266 to 315 days after surpassing its previous all-time high. With Bitcoin surpassing this threshold in mid-March 2024, it is reasonable to anticipate the next peak between late November 2024 and late January 2025.
The Progressive Lengthening of Bitcoin Bull Cycles
Despite the initial cycle acceleration, a retrospective review reveals an intriguing pattern: Bitcoin spends increasingly more time above its previous records before achieving a new high. In 2013, this duration was 268 days, which extended to 280 days in 2017 (+14 days) and further to 315 days in 2021 (+35 days). Extrapolating this trend suggests that the next peak might not materialize until between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025, 280 to 350 days after surpassing the previous record.
If the current cycle’s slowdown persists, Bitcoin could sync back with traditional post-Halving cycles. In such a scenario, based on the observed 518 to 546 days from previous cycles, the next bullish peak could be delayed to mid-September or mid-October 2025.
In essence, while the excitement of early 2024 has raised hopes for an imminent peak in the Bitcoin bull market, a comprehensive analysis of past cycles and current dynamics advises patience. Unless an improbable acceleration occurs, the next peak is unlikely to materialize before the end of 2024, more plausibly in 2025.
Therefore, prudent investors should adopt a long-term perspective and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations. Strategic and disciplined approaches will be essential to fully capitalize on Bitcoin’s growth potential in the foreseeable future.
