Bitcoin Price Forecast Q4: Past Trends Suggest BTC Price Set for Surge
In a recent post by Benjamin Cowen on X, he delved into the significance of Bitcoin dominance within the crypto market. Looking ahead, Bitcoin faces a crucial juncture where it must either surpass its Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) or encounter continued resistance. Cowen highlighted Bitcoin’s descent below its BMSB during the summer of 2024, a pattern reminiscent of previous years. For instance, in August 2023, Bitcoin dipped below its BMSB, lingered there for weeks, and then staged a robust rally in the fourth quarter.
Drawing parallels between Bitcoin’s performance in 2013 and 2024, Cowen noted that BTC hit a local low on July 5th in both years. Speculating on potential scenarios, he suggested that if Bitcoin mirrors the 2013 pattern, it could witness a “left-translated peak,” swiftly reclaiming the BMSB and using it as a support base over the next 1-2 months, leading to a rally in Q4. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year, which in the current cycle would be 2025. However, the process of reclaiming the BMSB might be prolonged, indicating a gradual ascent towards its peak.
Cowen anticipates a robust surge in Bitcoin dominance in Q4, potentially reaching around 60%. He argued that due to its lower risk profile compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is likely to offer superior returns until the Federal Reserve alters its course. This perspective underscores Bitcoin’s role as a safer and more dependable investment option in the prevailing market landscape.
Examining technical indicators, Cowen emphasized the critical importance of Bitcoin’s 2-week Relative Strength Index (RSI). This level will play a pivotal role in determining whether Bitcoin follows the trajectories of 2013 and 2016, where it found support around these levels, or 2019, where it breached them, leading to an intermediate downtrend within a broader uptrend. This analysis furnishes a technical framework for comprehending the potential pathways for Bitcoin.
Regarding market sentiment and altcoin behavior, Zia ul Haque concurred with Cowen’s prediction of a Q4 rally but expressed reservations about Bitcoin’s dominance surpassing 58%. Haque highlighted the increasing allocation of funds into altcoins as each cycle progresses, with many investors opting to retain their altcoin holdings despite market fluctuations. According to Haque, this trend could culminate in a stabilization of altcoins.
Looking ahead, Cowen’s outlook for Bitcoin in Q4 2024 hinges on its ability to breach the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB). Should Bitcoin mirror the trends of 2013, 2016, and 2023, a robust recovery and rally could be on the horizon. Conversely, if it follows the trajectory of 2019, challenges may persist. As we navigate through the summer, close attention will be paid to Bitcoin’s capacity to surmount existing obstacles and the factors that will shape its trajectory in the ensuing months.
The unfolding of Q4 will determine whether there will be transformative shifts in crypto assets or a continuation of the year-end turmoil. The answers will soon be unveiled, so stay tuned for more insights!
