Bitcoin price poised for a surge after breaking out above downtrend line
Bitcoin (BTC) has made a significant move as it broke above the descending trendline on Sunday, with the current trading price at $62,924 on Monday, reflecting a 3.5% increase. The latest on-chain data reveals a decline in miners’ selling activity, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.047 billion in inflows last week. Moreover, the widening Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap indicates a strengthening bullish sentiment among whales, hinting at a potential upward trajectory in the near future.
The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) data from CryptoQuant assesses the total miner outflow ratio to its one-year moving average. A lower MPI value like the current -1.3 suggests reduced coin outflows, signaling a decrease in selling pressure and potentially paving the way for a bullish trend for BTC in the coming days.
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap, also monitored by CryptoQuant, represents the disparity between Coinbase Pro and Binance prices. The escalating gap signifies heightened whale accumulation, with consistent purchases at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting increased investor interest and activity on the platform.
Recent market movements were influenced by the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump near Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. This event triggered a rally in BTC to $60,000, marking a 10-day high since July 4. The incident, combined with diverse political views within the crypto community, has generated a positive sentiment towards the 2024 US presidential candidate, with implications for market dynamics leading up to the election.
CoinGlass data indicates a rise in future Open Interest (OI) for BTC on exchanges, indicating increased capital inflows and buying activity. The surge in OI from $26.97 billion on July 9 to $31.87 billion on July 15 signifies a fresh influx of capital and heightened market activity.
Furthermore, the Spot ETF Net Inflow (USD) for Bitcoin saw an inflow of $1.04 billion last week, reflecting growing investor confidence and potentially forecasting a short-term price uptick for BTC.
From a technical analysis perspective, BTC’s break above the descending trendline suggests a positive outlook. If the trendline holds as support around $58,357, BTC could rally 9% to target its daily resistance at $63,956. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicators are showing promising signs for a potential recovery rally, with a bullish scenario projecting a 5% rise to retest the weekly resistance at $67,209.
Conversely, a close below $56,405 and the formation of a lower low in the daily timeframe may signal sustained bearish sentiment, potentially leading to a 7.5% decline in Bitcoin’s price towards its daily support at $52,266.
