Bernstein: Weak Bitcoin Price Linked to Harris’ Presidential Lead
As Kamala Harris gains ground over Donald Trump in various polls, including on the crypto-powered betting platform Polymarket, the price of Bitcoin has shown a weakening trend. Analysts at Bernstein suggest that this correlation is not coincidental. According to a recent report, the prevailing market sentiment indicates that a Trump victory is viewed as positive for the market, while a Harris win is seen as negative in the immediate market response.
Since Harris was nominated to run on August 4, Bitcoin has experienced a 3% decline. During this period, the leading cryptocurrency dipped below $50,000 following a rapid market downturn triggered by the unwinding of the so-called yen carry trade. Bitcoin has yet to reclaim its peak of $73,700 reached in March.
The escalating popularity of Harris on Polymarket has stirred unease in the crypto markets, with Bitcoin struggling to break out of its range and revisit its previous highs from June, hovering around $70,000, as noted by Bernstein analysts.
The upcoming presidential election marks the first instance where cryptocurrency has emerged as a significant topic in a major political contest. Donald Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance during his campaign has resonated well within the crypto community. His proposed initiatives such as establishing a national Bitcoin treasury, engaging with miners, and the pledge to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler if re-elected have garnered support.
Key figures in the crypto industry, like Ryan Selkis, the co-founder of Messari, have expressed their support for Trump. During a keynote address at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Trump revealed that his campaign had raised approximately $25 million from the crypto sector.
While Harris has not publicly articulated her stance on crypto, her campaign has recently onboarded two advisors with prior industry experience. David Plouffe, a former advisor to Barack Obama, served on Binance’s global advisory board, while Brian Nelson worked at the Treasury Department’s Office for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, which took enforcement actions against Binance for violating sanctions and anti-money laundering regulations.
Prominent figures in the crypto community, including Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, are backing Harris. The group Crypto4Harris is mobilizing support for Harris while advocating for a nuanced policy approach that positions the U.S. as a leader in digital assets, with plans to host a digital town hall on August 16.
In terms of market movements, Bitcoin has dipped by 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $59,892, while Ethereum has seen a slight increase of 0.8%, reaching $2,677.
The election outcome holds significant implications for the crypto industry, with stakeholders closely monitoring the evolving dynamics between the candidates and their respective positions on digital assets.
