Analysts Predict Bitcoin Price Breakout Unlikely Before Q4
The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a period of stabilization after recent volatility, with experts cautioning against expecting a significant surge in Bitcoin’s price until the last quarter of the year. According to a recent analysis by Singapore-based digital asset firm QCP Capital, the market is likely to remain in a holding pattern for the near future, despite some positive indicators.
Bitcoin has shown signs of stability, with its price rebounding to surpass the $60,000 mark following a recent sell-off. This recovery occurred even as BitGo transferred $2 billion worth of Mt. Gox BTC, suggesting that the market may be starting to overlook the potential impact of such transactions on supply.
Ethereum has also seen positive movement, with spot ETFs recording a two-day winning streak and attracting $24.3 million in net inflows. Market sentiment is shifting towards expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by a softer U.S. Producer Price Index report.
Despite the favorable environment, QCP Capital highlights the absence of major catalysts necessary for a substantial breakout. The firm anticipates limited significant price movements until the fourth quarter, even with consistent ETF inflows and support from institutions like BlackRock.
In a separate report, 10x Research underscores the importance of stablecoin inflows in sustaining any substantial rally. They note recent large issuances of USDT by Tether and Circle, signaling a gradual re-entry of institutional capital into the market. However, this momentum is already showing signs of slowing down.
For Bitcoin to move significantly above the $60,000 to $61,000 resistance zone, 10x Research emphasizes the need for strong stablecoin inflows to support a sustainable breakout. Other factors like the expansion of futures and derivatives leverage, which previously drove price rebounds, are now having less impact.
Overall, while the cryptocurrency market shows signs of stability and gradual recovery, experts advise caution and suggest that significant price movements may be limited until the last quarter of the year. This cautious outlook reflects the current market dynamics and the need for strong support to sustain any substantial rallies.
