Bitcoin Price Drops Below $60K Due to US Government Actions, ETF Outflows, and Bearish Indicators
On Tuesday, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) experienced net outflows totaling $56.9 million, while Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $18.0 million. Additionally, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net outflows of $6.8 million, and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) recorded net outflows of $5.8 million. In contrast, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) reported total net inflows of $2.7 million and $3.4 million, respectively.
Despite softer US inflation data, there was no significant increase in buyer demand for BTC and BTC-spot ETFs. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite Index maintained its gains from Tuesday, rising by 2.43% due to growing expectations of multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts.
Expert insights on Crypto-Spot ETFs and US politics were shared by ETF Store President Nate Geraci, who referenced leading ETF attorney Jeremy Senderowicz. Senderowicz highlighted that the approval of ETF share class structure might be influenced by the upcoming election, with potential implications for innovation. The current political landscape suggests that the approval of applications could vary depending on the election outcome.
According to recent FiveThirtyEight US presidential election polls, Kamala Harris is leading Trump by 5 points. The potential impact of election polls on BTC price trends is noted, with a lead by Kamala Harris being perceived as BTC-price negative.
The US economic calendar highlights the significance of US initial jobless claims and retail sales in influencing market risk sentiment. Any unexpected spikes in jobless claims or declines in retail sales could fuel concerns about a potential US economic downturn, affecting various economic indicators like wages, consumer confidence, and spending.
BTC price trends are expected to be influenced by jobless claims and retail sales figures. Positive figures could propel BTC towards $65,000, while weaker numbers may reintroduce fears of a US recession, potentially pulling BTC towards $55,000.
In terms of technical analysis, BTC remains below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bearish trend. A breakout above the 200-day EMA could lead to a move towards the $60,365 resistance level, with further potential for a push towards the 50-day EMA. Considerations for Thursday include US economic data, Mt. Gox and US government supply news, and trends in the US BTC-spot ETF market flow.
A breach below $57,500 could indicate a decline towards $55,000, with a further drop potentially testing the $52,884 support level. With a 43.24 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC might approach the $55,000 mark before entering oversold territory.
