Bitcoin Trader Predicts Worst-Case Scenario for BTC After Successfully Navigating Pre-Halving Correction

An expert who accurately predicted Bitcoin’s price drop before its halving this year is now outlining a potentially bearish price trajectory for BTC. In a recent video update, a pseudonymous analyst with a significant YouTube following explains that Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle tied to the halving event, where rewards for BTC miners are halved.

Delving deeper into the analysis, it is revealed that Bitcoin has historically encountered a “three-year resistance” level within each four-year cycle, dating back to as early as 2013. The analyst points out that in previous cycles, Bitcoin had to surpass its three-year resistance levels at approximately $700 in 2017 and $13,856 in the 2021 cycle before reaching a market peak.

For the current cycle, the three-year resistance level was identified at $46,000, a threshold that Bitcoin has already surpassed. However, the trader suggests that Bitcoin might revisit this level to confirm it as a new support level before initiating the next upward movement.

The analyst discusses the dynamics of this transition phase, highlighting that the fourth candle in the cycle often sets the stage for potential retests of the three-year resistance level, converting it into a new support level to drive prices to new record highs and beyond. The possibility of a retest is mentioned, indicating a potential drop to $46,000, which would represent a 19% decrease this month.

While acknowledging the chance of Bitcoin dropping to $46,000 as a feasible scenario, the analyst emphasizes that it is a low-probability event, especially considering that Bitcoin is currently in a halving year and not in a bear market. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $54,197, showing a slight increase for the day.

The analysis provides valuable insights into the potential price movements of Bitcoin based on historical patterns and current market conditions. It underscores the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price behavior and the significance of key resistance levels in shaping its trajectory. Investors and enthusiasts closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price movements are advised to consider these factors in their decision-making processes.