Ethereum Whales Influence ETH Price Trends: What Comes Next After 2019 Pattern?

Ethereum is showing signs of a bullish trend, with whales accumulating, exchange outflows increasing, and sentiment strengthening.

The current price action of Ethereum is reminiscent of its 2019 pattern, particularly on the ETH/USD pair, where an ascending wedge formation is evident. Notably, the higher lows in this cycle’s wedge are significantly larger than those observed in 2019.

In 2019, Ethereum’s price dropped below its ascending wedge before the first Federal Reserve rate cut, a scenario that is somewhat similar to the current market conditions in 2024. Following the rate cut in 2019, both the ETH/USD and ETH/BTC pairs hit bottom, forming a strong confluence.

The ongoing pattern is anticipated to mirror the past success, with the price likely to break below the wedge, capturing liquidity before reversing upwards in late Q4 2024 or early Q1 2025. However, prolonged price movement below the ascending wedge may necessitate further analysis to adjust strategies or mitigate potential losses.

Whales continue to play a crucial role in supporting the anticipated upward movement of Ethereum. The largest holders of ETH have been steadily accumulating more since 2019, with this trend intensifying post the Shanghai upgrade in early 2023. Currently, whales control over 43% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, closing in on the 48% held by retail investors, indicating a positive long-term outlook.

Examining Ethereum’s exchange netflows reveals that negative netflows on derivative exchanges have exceeded 40,000 ETH. This suggests a withdrawal of ETH from these exchanges to cold wallets, signaling reduced selling pressure. Traders appear to be gearing up for long-term gains, hinting that the current price decline in Ethereum may be a temporary correction setting the stage for a significant upward movement.

Despite some negative net-flows in Ethereum ETFs, there are positive indicators. ETH ETFs, including Fidelity’s, have witnessed inflows over the past 24 hours, with Grayscale’s ETHE experiencing the largest outflow. The overall positive sentiment surrounding ETFs could potentially bolster Ethereum’s future price growth.

In conclusion, Ethereum’s market dynamics, including whale accumulation, exchange outflows, and ETF activities, suggest a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory in the near future.