Trump and Harris Debate: Polymarket Indicates Low Probability of Crypto Discussion
Cryptocurrency has seen significant growth, evolving from obscurity to potentially being discussed in the upcoming U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
While the likelihood remains slim, there is a chance that the topic of cryptocurrency or Bitcoin may arise during the debate. On Polymarket’s prediction market for “What will Trump say at the debate?” contract, the trading price for “yes” shares related to “crypto/Bitcoin” stood at 17 cents in New York on Tuesday, indicating a 17% probability of Trump mentioning one or both terms. Traders can earn $1 worth of cryptocurrency per share if the prediction materializes, or nothing if it does not.
In comparison to other contentious issues, cryptocurrency ranks lower in probability for Trump’s discussion, trailing behind topics like “abortion” with an 83% probability and Trumpian terms such as “Comrade Kamala” at 40%.
Vice President Harris faces an even slimmer chance of mentioning bitcoin or crypto, with a 13% probability. The leading contender for a mention from the Democratic candidate is “abortion” with an 87% likelihood, followed by references to her opponent as a “convicted felon” at 58%.
Throughout this year, Trump has actively sought support from cryptocurrency enthusiasts and donors, while Harris’ campaign has shown interest in a more favorable stance towards crypto, despite serving in an administration perceived as unfriendly to the industry.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, enable traders to bet on a wide range of outcomes, from flu outbreaks and wars to Rotten Tomatoes scores. Advocates argue that these markets provide more accurate forecasting compared to traditional polls and pundits, as traders have a financial stake in their predictions, encouraging thorough research and honest conclusions.
Election betting has surged in popularity, with Polymarket attracting a significant portion of the activity, recording its highest trading volume of $34 million on a single day. Despite regulatory restrictions blocking U.S. users, some traders may be circumventing these limitations using VPNs.
On Manifold, a prediction market focused on “play money,” the likelihood of “bitcoin” being mentioned during the debate ranks relatively low at 12%, slightly ahead of terms like “unburdened” (8%) and “coconut” (6%). Bets on this platform are settled in mana, a digital currency distinct from cryptocurrencies. Users receive free mana upon registration and can acquire more through trading, with the primary incentive being the establishment of a reputation as an accurate predictor.
