Man seeks lost hard drive with bitcoin fortune in dump – likelihood of recovery discussed
James Howells, a Welsh IT engineer, is considering the purchase of a council dump in south Wales after his former partner mistakenly disposed of a hard drive with his bitcoin wallet. The hard drive is believed to contain bitcoins valued at £600 million. Howells’ legal attempts to search the landfill for the hard drive were unsuccessful, prompting questions about the feasibility of locating it.
In December 2008, Howells became an early user of bitcoin and began mining the currency on his laptop in February 2009. At that time, only five individuals were mining bitcoin, and Howells accumulated approximately 8,000 bitcoins. Initially, the currency held little value, as the first real-world transaction took place in 2010, where 10,000 bitcoins were used to purchase two pizzas in Florida.
Over the next 15 years, bitcoin’s value surged significantly, with a single bitcoin surpassing $100,000 in December 2024. This exponential growth has brought immense potential to Howells’ lost bitcoins, translating those two pizzas into a value of US$1 billion (£790 million).
The task of locating a tiny 10cm hard drive in a landfill filled with 1.4 billion kg of waste poses a daunting challenge. While calculating the probability of finding the hard drive, it is essential to consider the landfill’s vast size and depth. A conservative estimate suggests the landfill has a volume of 10 trillion cubic centimeters, whereas the hard drive occupies a mere 70 cubic centimeters. The odds of finding the hard drive at a random site within the landfill are approximately one in 143 billion, making it over 3,000 times less likely than winning the UK’s National Lottery jackpot.
The time and financial costs associated with the search are crucial considerations. Searching the entire landfill site could take an estimated 316 years when examining each section at a rate of 1 second per 1,000 cubic centimeters. However, if resources allow for continuous team-based search efforts, the timeline could be significantly reduced.
Considering financial aspects, the concept of expected value plays a key role. Howells and his team must weigh the costs against the odds of finding the hard drive within a specified timeframe. While the chances remain slim, the potential reward of £600 million may justify the expenses if managed efficiently.
In conclusion, the quest to retrieve Howells’ lost bitcoins entails meticulous calculations of probability, time, and cost. Despite the daunting odds against locating the hard drive, the allure of a potential £600 million bounty remains a compelling incentive for the pursuit, underscoring the significance of strategic planning and resource allocation in this endeavor.
