Bitcoin Forecast for Summer 2024: What You Need to Know
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a period of relative calm as it transitions between major developments. The initial buzz and speculation surrounding the launch of ETFs have subsided, and there is a lack of significant positive news on the horizon until the U.S. election in November. During this interim phase, Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating challenges from both the crypto and macroeconomic landscapes.
In June, BTC came close to reaching its all-time highs before a surge in non-farm payroll jobs data unexpectedly caused prices to plummet to $58,000, despite lower inflation figures. The commencement of the distribution of Mt. Gox’s $9 billion worth of BTC and the sale of seized BTC by the German government pushed BTC prices down to around $54,000. However, BTC has since rebounded to the low $60,000s. The completion of Mt. Gox distributions in the coming months is expected to eliminate a significant price risk. Despite these setbacks, BTC has demonstrated resilience. The potential approval of an Ethereum (ETH) ETF could serve as the next catalyst for the market. With lower liquidity compared to BTC, robust inflows into ETH might drive its value higher, although a similar supply imbalance to BTC’s could arise.
In the political arena, there have been instances of Donald Trump expressing favorable sentiments towards BTC and digital assets in his speeches, advocating for an America-first approach to retaining jobs and wealth within the U.S. A potential re-election of Trump is speculated to positively impact BTC prices, although the specifics of a Trump Administration’s stance on digital assets remain unclear. There could be a surge in speculative buying leading up to the election, creating a positive narrative for the market.
Furthermore, several major central banks, including those of Canada and the E.U., lowered interest rates in June. Given that global M2 liquidity is strongly correlated with BTC prices, these rate cuts indicate a favorable trend towards increased global liquidity, which could benefit the cryptocurrency market.
Looking back at the start of June, BTC neared its all-time highs before external factors pushed it down to lower levels within the month. Despite a dip in prices following the Mt. Gox distributions and the sale of seized BTC, the market exhibited signs of resilience. While BTC currently lacks a clear narrative with predominantly negative events on the horizon, ETH is anticipating the launch of its ETFs, which is expected to generate market excitement due to its lower liquidity compared to BTC. The potential approval of the ETF S-1 for ETH in July could drive interest and demand, with investors closely monitoring the performance of altcoins alongside BTC and ETH.
On the political front, Trump’s positive stance on BTC and crypto in his speeches contrasts with Biden’s relative silence on the issue. The upcoming BTC 2024 event in Nashville, featuring the presence of various politicians, including Donald Trump, could serve as a platform for significant announcements regarding digital assets.
It is important to note that the opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinDesk, Inc., or its affiliates.
