Unlikely: Trump to Announce Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Polymarket Predicts
Bettors on Polymarket are showing skepticism regarding the likelihood of Former President Donald Trump announcing a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve at Bitcoin 2024 this week. The focus is on what stance Trump will take on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto industry.
There is ongoing speculation among Polymarket bettors about the possibility of Trump revealing plans for a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve during the conference. The bet hinges on whether Trump will declare the “creation of a U.S. strategic reserve of Bitcoin upon becoming president” by July 28. The bet’s outcome will be determined based on official recordings or transcripts of any such announcement at the event.
As it stands, the chances of Trump unveiling a reserve by the specified date are currently at only 22%. Initially, when the bet was initiated, there was a higher level of optimism, with bettors estimating a 76% probability of Trump making such a declaration.
Speculation surrounding Trump potentially establishing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States gained traction on social media last week. These rumors were fueled by Dennis Porter, co-founder of the Satoshi Act, who claimed to have reliable sources confirming Trump’s intentions. However, the buzz surrounding this topic has waned since President Biden announced his decision to withdraw from the U.S. presidential race.
If the U.S. were to embrace Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, it could capitalize on its status as the largest nation-state holder of Bitcoin. This move would align with Trump’s vision that any remaining Bitcoin should be mined within the United States. A Bitcoin strategic reserve would involve the U.S. Treasury holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin as part of its reserve holdings, akin to its current practices with gold or foreign currencies.
The discourse surrounding Trump’s potential announcement at Bitcoin 2024 has generated interest and speculation within the crypto community. While the outcome remains uncertain, the implications of such a move could have far-reaching consequences for the crypto landscape and the position of the United States in the digital asset realm.
