Bitcoin Poised for Record Sideways Movement, November Elections Could Fuel Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin is approaching a milestone as it nears the record for the longest sideways market range following its halving in April, currently at 285 days. Various factors, such as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, increasing U.S. Treasury yields, and the extension of Mt. Gox’s repayment deadline to October 2025, are contributing to the lackluster price action of Bitcoin.

Traditionally, October has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, particularly in its second half. The cryptocurrency is just two weeks away from potentially marking its longest period in a sideways post-halving scenario, disappointing bulls who were anticipating a more substantial rally in the final quarter of the year.

Halvings occur approximately every four years, reducing block rewards for miners. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with bull rallies, with prices surging by hundreds of percentage points in the months following previous events. The reduction in new Bitcoin entering the market, coupled with sustained or increased demand, typically leads to price increases.

Before the April 14 halving, Bitcoin surged above $73,000 to reach new all-time highs, with some projections targeting a potential rally to as high as $160,000 by the end of the year. However, prices have largely fluctuated within the $59,000 to $65,000 range since then, nearing a 300-day sideways action record from 2016.

The current uneventful price movement of Bitcoin, characterized by continued accumulation by small investors, is attributed to several factors, including the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and the resurgence of U.S. Treasury yields. Additionally, the announcement of Mt. Gox extending its repayment deadline to October 2025 may help alleviate some supply pressures in the short term.

Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen as favorable towards cryptocurrencies, with associations to the decentralized finance project World Liberty Finance, while the Democratic party is viewed as less crypto-friendly. A Republican victory is widely anticipated to fuel a higher Bitcoin price movement.

Bitcoin would need to break and sustain levels above $69,000 to signal a bullish breakout from the current range. A breakout could potentially lead to a resumption of the broader uptrend from October 2023 lows, with a focus shifting towards the $100,000 mark, a level anticipated by options traders.

October historically marks a bullish period for Bitcoin, with most gains typically occurring in the second half of the month, particularly after October 16. However, challenges persist, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently charged multiple market-making and trading firms, sparking concerns about potential market troubles leading up to the November elections.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s current sideways movement reflects a period of accumulation or distribution, where investors reassess their positions, resulting in a balance between buying and selling pressures. This phase often precedes periods of heightened volatility in the market.