Bitcoin’s Decline from $70K Marked by ‘Lackluster Trading Activity’

Deribit’s BTC DVOL index, which measures volatility expectations, has recently decreased to its lowest level since early February. The ongoing decline in volatility, coupled with a drop in prices, indicates a lack of interest in options trading.

Experienced stock traders often note that market corrections are typically accompanied by an increase in metrics like the VIX index, which assesses volatility expectations. However, this pattern does not hold true in the bitcoin market, despite the usual positive correlation between cryptocurrency prices and technology stocks.

For example, as the price of bitcoin has retreated by 10% from its peak above $70,000 over the past month, Deribit’s bitcoin volatility index DVOL has fallen from an annualized 53% to 42%. This decline marks the lowest level since early February, according to data from TradingView.

Implied volatility is influenced by the demand for options or derivative contracts that grant the holder the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price in the future. A call option provides the right to buy, while a put option allows for selling.

The decrease in DVOL amid the price correction indicates a stable market environment where investors are less inclined to engage in panic selling or hedging strategies. Moreover, the gradual decline in bitcoin’s price has led to a situation where investors are more likely to purchase options to capitalize on potential volatility.

David Brickell, head of international distribution at Toronto-based crypto platform FRNT Financial, highlighted the current market sentiment, stating, “Since BTC has declined from its peak, we have been experiencing a range-bound market with low realized volatility.” He added, “There is a lack of interest in buying volatility heading into the summer months, and the prevailing trend is for overwriters to sell volatility. In the absence of significant demand, volatility levels are decreasing.”

Volatility selling, a common strategy in the crypto market, involves investors selling options during quiet market conditions to reduce implied volatility. Sellers receive a premium for committing to compensate buyers in the event of significant price fluctuations, typically by writing call options alongside their spot market holdings.

Brickell suggested that a potential resurgence in BTC’s price above $70,000 could reignite interest in options trading and elevate the DVOL implied volatility index. Throughout the current bull cycle, BTC’s price has exhibited a positive correlation with the DVOL index.

“We may need to witness BTC testing higher levels and threatening a breakout to escape this period of low volatility,” Brickell remarked.